It is definitely a no-brainer that India has been most patiently tolerating massive cross-border terrorism unlike any other country in the world since last more than four decades when I was just a very small child not knowing what terrorism meant in which Kargil war is also included in which thousands of soldiers were killed from both sides due to unprovoked aggression by Pakistan and terror groups affiliated to Pakistan apart from so many other cross border infiltration in which lakhs of Indians have been killed which is more than all the wars of 1947-48, 1965, 1971 and even 1999 included still India kept on constantly tolerating, respecting boundary line and even unilaterally had conferred Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status on Pakistan only to count more and more dead bodies of not only soldiers but also of civilians yet Pakistan has been taking India for a ride for far too long which led to revocation of MFN status! But Pakistan still continued encouraging, arming, aiding and abetting terrorists to carry out big terror attacks in India and sometimes they even succeeded in killing many innocents! All overtures that were made from Indian side was openly mocked at by Pakistan by master minding more and more terror attacks on India time and again!
This alone explains why PM Narendra Modi recently after the most ghastly Pahalgam carnage of innocent tourists on April 22, 2025 in which 26 people were killed and many injured seriously which caught the whole nation by surprise decided to take the big leap and catching the bull by the horns decided to put the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance immediately a day after the dastardly terror attack! It was most commendably pointed out by PM Narendra Modi that, “This is not an era of war but it is also not an era of terrorism. We will not see terrorists and their state sponsors separately. India’s fight against terrorism has not stopped. If the snake of terrorism raises its hood again, we will force and drag it out of its hole and crush it. Those who had widowed our sisters, our defence forces turned their terror bases to ruins. Pakistan and the world saw the power of sindoor (vermilion)…Our defence forces destroyed airbases and army establishments of Pakistan. This is new India, this is the power of new India.” External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar also when asked about the IWT had said clearly that, “It was very clear that the treaty is held in abeyance and will continue to be held in abeyance until cross-border terrorism by Pakistan is credibly and irrevocably stopped.”
When Pakistan has failed to behave like a responsible country then why should India still affirm by IWT and not use it as strategic leverage against Pakistan’s huge support to terrorism directed against India? It is worth noting that Article XII(4) of the agreement the treaty is operative “until terminated by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose.” This alone explains why India has not formally rescinded the agreement and has only held it in abeyance so that Pakistan can’t hold India guilty by default.
Without mincing any words, PM also delivered a very sharp rebuke to Pakistan and accused it of treating terrorism as a substitute for tourism, a mindset that has devastated the country’s future and endangered global peace. PM Narendra Modi also made it absolutely clear to Pakistan and the world that there will be zero tolerance from now to terrorism and terror sponsor country like Pakistan. To put it in his own words, PM also very rightly said most clearly, most courageously and so also most convincingly that, “Terror and talks cannot go together; water and blood cannot flow together.” Absolutely right! There can be just no denying or disputing it!
What also cannot be lost sight of is that PM has made it indubitably clear that India won’t fall for nuclear blackmail and Pakistan will have to pay heavily for any act of terror. He also said that India would impose a crippling economic cost by stopping the flow of its share of water under the Indus Waters Treaty which it has been allowing its hostile neighbour Pakistan to use all these years. He also warned adding a rider that, “If Pakistan continues to export terrorists, it will have to beg for every penny. Pakistan will not get the water that is India’s right. Playing with the blood of Indians will cost Pakistan dearly!”
It will be in the fitness of things to endorse what stand Centre has taken most rationally that, “Pakistan cannot carry on with cross-border terrorism while expecting cooperation in areas of its own choosing in bilateral relations.” The IWT when concluded in 1960 was at a time when there was no cross border terrorism. Pakistan has been stonewalling all good gestures from India taking it as India’s biggest weakness and not letting down the huge cross border terrorism in any manner even after so many decades which has made a complete mockery of the Indus Water Treaty as it has behaved like a rogue nation who has to be dealt with an iron hand!
While striking the right chord at the right time, we witnessed how brilliantly while addressing the plenary session of the first UN Conference on glaciers in Dushanbe which is capital of Tajikistan on May 30, 2025, the Minister of State for Environment – Kirti Vardhan Singh said most vocally and clearly that Pakistan itself was violating the treaty through terrorism. Kirti pointed out most emphatically stating that, “We are appalled at the attempt by Pakistan to misuse the forum and to bring in unwarranted references to issues which do not fall within the purview of the forum. We strongly condemned such an attempt.” Very rightly so!
Kirti was also most categorical in stating unequivocally reiterating firmly that, “It is an undeniable fact that there have been fundamental changes in circumstances since the Indus Waters Treaty was signed, which requires a reassessment of the treaty’s obligations. These changes include technological advancements, demographic changes, climate change and the ongoing threat of cross-border terrorism.” So it will thus not be inappropriate in any manner to say most indubitably that it is beyond a straw of doubt that Pakistan is fully and squarely responsible for breaching seriously the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) from which it cannot extricate itself by simply just washing its hands off and most conveniently putting the onus of blame on the exclusive shoulders of India alone! Kirti thus stands totally justified in holding very clearly, cogently and convincingly that, “Pakistan, which itself is in violation of the treaty, should desist from putting the blame of the breach of the treaty on India.”
In hindsight, it took 8 long years of negotiations for the Indus Water Treaty to conclude and was brokered by the World Bank who in September 1951 had taken the initiative to solve the contentious issue of Indus waters between India and Pakistan. It also must be borne in mind that the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) was signed in Karachi on September 19, 1960 after long negotiations by the then Indian PM Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan and came into force retrospectively from April 1, 1960. It also must be mentioned here that the treaty was ratified by both India and Pakistan with the exchange of instruments of ratification in New Delhi on January 12, 1961. It also deserves mentioning here that as per Article 5.1 of IWT, India also agreed to make a fixed contribution of UK Pound Sterling 62,060,000 (or 125 metric tons of gold when gold standard was followed) towards the cost of construction of new head-works and canal system for irrigation from Western rivers in the Punjab province of Pakistan!
It must be mentioned here that senior and eminent Supreme Court lawyer Mohan Kataraki who delivered a special lecture at the Belagavi Bar Association in Karnataka said most elegantly, eloquently and effectively putting forth in simple, short and straightforward words that, “As per the treaty, Pakistan controls 80% of the waters from the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab, while India gets only 20% from the Ravi, the Beas and the Sutlej. This is owing to geography. Rivers rise in the mountains, flow down and split before entering the sea. The Indus takes birth in Tibet and ends in the Arabian Sea. The West flowing rivers of the Indus basin enter Pakistan owing to gravity. India benefits from the three East flowing rivers.” He also pointed out that while some people felt that the IWT, mediated by the World Bank disproportionately favoured Pakistan, the others felt it was in favour of India as there was no provision for any nation to cancel the treaty.”
He also pointed out further that India, as an upstream nation, had limited storage capacity (just 0.6 million acre fields (MAF) compared to downstream Pakistan. It gets around 100 MAF of the Indus waters. Frankly speaking, it was also sagaciously revealed by him laying bare herein that, “Owing to climate change and other natural reasons, water yield in the three Indus basin rivers has reduced by 14% in the last 15 to 20 years. The treaty lacked provisions for modifications unless both nations agree. The situation was favourable to India as Pakistan had no way to challenge its abeyance.”
It must be borne in mind that Pradeep Kumar Saxena who has served as India’s Indus Water Commissioner for over six years and has been associated with the work that is pertaining to the IWT laid bare that India, as an upper riparian country, has multiple options. Interestingly enough, we see that Pradeep also lay bare on the abrogation of the IWT propounding most rationally that, “Although there is no explicit provision in the treaty for its abrogation, Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on Law of the Treaties provides sufficient room under which the treaty can be repudiated in view of the fundamental change of circumstances which has occurred with regard to those existing at the time of conclusion of the treaty.” It may be recalled that just last year in 2024, India had sent a formal notice to Pakistan seeking the “review and modification” of the treaty.
It was also disclosed by Pradeep regarding the steps that India could take with IWT being in abeyance that in the absence of the treaty, India is under no obligation to follow the restrictions on the “reservoir flushing” of the Kishanganga reservoir and other projects on western rivers in Jammu and Kashmir which was prohibited earlier by the IWT when not in abeyance. It was also revealed by him that, “Flushing can help India desilt its reservoir but then filling the entire reservoir could take days. Under the treaty, reservoir filling after the flushing has to be done in August — peak monsoon period — but with the pact in abeyance, it could be done anytime. Doing it when sowing season begins in Pakistan could be detrimental, especially when a large part of Punjab in Pakistan depends on the Indus and its tributaries for irrigation.”
All told, we thus see that India inspite of giving a major portion of Indus water to Pakistan and unstinted support also by unilaterally granting MFN status behaving like a good big brother only culminated most astoundingly in receiving thousands of stabs by not only Pakistani Army by resorting to unprovoked cross border firing in which so many innocents have lost their lives in last 78 years of independence and even Kargil intrusion in which so many soldiers killed from both sides and what not but also by various terror groups who carried out so many merciless terror attacks repeatedly like the one in Mumbai on March 12, 1993 in which more than 200 people were killed and so also on November 26, 2008 again in Mumbai in which again many were killed which has only demonstrated that Pakistan is not a responsible country nor can it ever be with whom India has always behaved like a good neighbour and it is after more than four and a half decades of cross border terrorism has finally decided to take the call to put the IWT in abeyance! If Pakistan wants its share as per IWT, then it has to behave like a good neighbour and not like a terror sponsor country as it has been doing openly since last so many decades! If Pakistan even now plays its cards well and start behaving like a good neighbour, India would definitely be magnanimous enough to voluntarily again start giving Pakistan its due as permitted like earlier under the IWT!
It is thus a no-brainer that the ball is definitely in the court of Pakistan! It is high time that Pakistan wakes up its ideas and start realizing that by sponsoring cross-border terrorism, it will only suffer huge consequences both in terms of money and men power! The earlier it dismantles terror factories, the better it shall be for itself and for regional peace also!
Sanjeev Sirohi
